Publications
Working Papers
Asia-Latin America Free Trade Agreements: An Instrument for Inter-Regional Liberalization and Integration?
A recently published ADBI working paper finds that Asia-Latin America FTAs form a solid basis for greater inter-regional integration by liberalizing goods and services trade including some behind the border regulatory barriers. Future FTAs can contribute to deeper integration by decreasing residual regulatory barriers. Other policy recommendations include forming a broader inter-regional FTA, promoting business use of FTAs and accelerating structural reforms. Get the PDF.
Asian Development Bank | 52 pages | Free
Institutions for Asian Integration: Innovation and Reform
The formation of regional production networks in East Asia has occurred mainly through market forces, without much help from regional institutions in promoting the creation of a single Asian market. While this approach has served the region well in the past, the drastic changes experienced since the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the challenges Asian countries are facing--growing inequalities and competition, on the one hand, and enhanced threats to the environment and people’s health on the other--have rendered more urgent the need for intergovernmental cooperation at global and regional levels. Asia’s institutions for regionalism need strengthening through reform and innovation such as better governance and resourcing, greater and more effective participation and delegation of powers, overall streamlining of regional architecture, including the phasing out of outdated or irrelevant institutions and, where needed, the creation of new ones. Ultimately, given its rootedness in regional order, institutional efficacy is a function of the ability and willingness of its members, especially influential stakeholders, to collaborate. Get the PDF.
Asian Development Bank | 31 pages | Free
Narrowing the Development Divide in ASEAN - The Role of Policy
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is highly diverse. It is also divided. The most striking example is the development divide that separates ASEAN’s newer members of Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Viet Nam—the CLMV countries—from the organization’s original members, or ASEAN-6. More rapid growth in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam since the 1990s—driven by trade, investment, and other market reforms—has reduced income differences between this grouping and ASEAN-6. Yet, while the development divide has narrowed, huge gaps remain. The further narrowing of these gaps will require an increase in the pace and breadth of policy reforms, and start addressing labor mobility. Although rapid growth has resulted in convergence among ASEAN members, it has also increased polarization within individual countries. This can threaten social cohesion and the sustainability of future growth. There is a pressing need to invest more in education and health, and to institute land reform. Visit site.
Asian Development Bank | 52 pages | Free
The Impact of ACFTA on People’s Republic of China–ASEAN Trade: Estimates Based on an Extended Gravity Model for Component Trade
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is highly diverse. It is also divided. The most striking example is the development divide that separates ASEAN’s newer members of Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Viet Nam—the CLMV countries—from the organization’s original members, or ASEAN-6. More rapid growth in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam since the 1990s—driven by trade, investment, and other market reforms—has reduced income differences between this grouping and ASEAN-6. Yet, while the development divide has narrowed, huge gaps remain. The further narrowing of these gaps will require an increase in the pace and breadth of policy reforms, and start addressing labor mobility. Although rapid growth has resulted in convergence among ASEAN members, it has also increased polarization within individual countries. This can threaten social cohesion and the sustainability of future growth. There is a pressing need to invest more in education and health, and to institute land reform. Visit site.
Asian Development Bank | 52 pages | Free
Food Standards and Exports: Evidence from [the People's Republic of] China
Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post-financial-crisis world, can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades. We find in particular that, among our variables of interest, the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries is the one most robustly associated with output growth. The results have implications for continued post-crisis growth in Asian developing countries. Visit site.
The World Bank Development Research Group Trade and Integration Team | 25 pages | Free
Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis?
Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post-financial-crisis world, can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades. We find in particular that, among our variables of interest, the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries is the one most robustly associated with output growth. The results have implications for continued post-crisis growth in Asian developing countries. Visit site.
Asian Development Bank Institute | 40 pages | Free
Economic Reforms, Regionalism, and Exports: Comparing [People's Republic of] China and India
This paper undertakes a comparative empirical assessment of economic reforms and exports in the rising Asian giants, People's Republic of China (PRC) and India. It explores the past record and future challenges. In recent years, the PRC has surged ahead of India to dominate world manufactured exportsm but India has acquired competitive capabilities in skill-intensive services. Favorable initial conditions (e.g., large markets and low-cost productive labor) shaped the giants'success. While the gradual switch to market-oriented reforms in the late-1970s drove trade-led growth in the giants, the PRC was swifter and more coordinated. It introduced an open door policy towards foreign direct investment (FDI), activelyu facilitated technological upgrading of FDI, steadily liberalized a controlled import regime, ensured a competitive exchange rate, and concluded more comprehensive free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASian developing economies. India has attempted to enact economic reforms since 1991, particularly to attdact FDI and lieralize imports. Therefore, one might expect the gap in trade performance between the PRC and India to narrow over time. However, both giants face an uncertain world economy after the global financial crisis, and future success will depend on evolving reforms. Critical areas are how the giants respond to integrating with production networks, promote technology development, manage real exchange rates, and mitigate the risk of protectionism.Visit site.
East-West Center | 83 pages | Free
Effects of Trade and Services Liberalization on Wage Inequality in India
India's economic reforms of the 1990s are widely credited with having raised India's rates of economic growth. They are also believed to have contributed to a widening of inequality. Aashish Mehta and Rana Hasan use labor force survey data from India to examine the extent to which trade and services liberalization—key components of India's economic reforms—have contributed to increases in wage inequality.Visit site.
Asian Development Bank Institute | 40 pages | Free
South-South Trade: An Asian Perspective
Prema-chandra Athukorala examines trends and patterns of South–South trade in Asian economies, with emphasis on the implications of the growing importance of global production sharing and the rise of the People's Republic of China. His findings suggest that growth of South–South trade of Asian economies has not lagged behind what one would expect in terms of the standard determinants of trade potential, and that South–South trade is largely complementary to, rather than competing with, South–North trade. Visit site.
Asian Development Bank Institute | 55 pages | Free
Asia's Changing Role in World Trade: Prospects for South–South Trade Growth to 2030
This paper projects the world economy to 2030 to demonstrate the extent to which developing Asia's rapid economic growth is likely to further shift the global industrial center of gravity away from the North Atlantic to Asia, increase the importance of Asia in world trade, and boost South - South trade. In their core scenario, they project the share of South - South trade in global trade to double, from 13% to 26% - or to 29% if gross domestic product and capital growth in the North were to be one-sixth slower than in the core projection (or if ASEAN+6 opened up, or if all goods trade were to be freed globally). The South's share of world exports rises from 33% in 2004 to 55% in 2030 in their core projection, and to even more if slower growth in the North is assumed, or if global trade is liberalized. Visit site.
Asian Development Bank Institute | 44 pages | Free
© Copyright 2012 Asian International Economists Network.
All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without
permission is prohibited. AIEN is not responsible for the
content of external sites.